As the fourth quarter closes, the AUD/USD Forecast is a well maintained steady downward trend. The currency pair has lost over six percent since August, which is at a high in the upward trend.
Many traders have been concerned that the price would drop again following its mid-July low. However, the currency has moved lower into the negative territory and is now sitting comfortably in overbought territory.
Although there has been a large amount of selling, it is not likely to be sustained, as it may see some buying for a short term. Therefore, the AUD/USD Forecast remains in overbought territory and looks unlikely to climb further.
A few areas are now strong resistance, including the upper channel and lower channel. Strong resistance can generally be interpreted as the point where prices will not start to move lower, as it could be subject to further selling.
Any weakness will then be followed by strong support. The upper channel has now seen some sales and therefore looks a strong support, as it is near a range support found in late January and the February, March and April channel.
The lower channel also has a range support, which is found in the chart pattern for the second wave of the Fibonacci sequence. This is a lower boundary for buyers following strong support levels which have been met.
The strong support for the currency is also supported by its resistance levels. These include the fourth quarter support, which has been weakened, as has the January, February and March channel, as well as the January channel.
The weaker side of the currency also has strong support from the higher channel. This includes the first three quarters of support and the third quarter support.
Traders have been able to take advantage of these channels, as the stronger channel in the fourth quarter has been weak. The third quarter channel is also weakened, as have the second half of January and the January channel.
It is possible that the weaker channel in the second half of January, as well as the February and March channels, are no longer strong enough to provide support, as they are now seen as lower than any level seen before. Therefore, buyers may now be having more success in the channels.
The range support will be found in the first two thirds of February, as well as the second half of January. The second half of February is seen as being weaker than the first two thirds and therefore is probably not a strong support.
It is therefore difficult to say whether the channels, which are weak in the fourth quarter, are strong enough to support the currency at the current level, as the currency has seen further weakness since mid-July. It is possible that buyers may be waiting until the channel reaches a greater than 50 levels as a strong support.