The Euro Dollar Forecast is forecasting that the Euro will remain the top currency with respect to trade for the rest of 2020. In particular, we are expecting the Euro to remain above the EURUSD/CHF currency pair in terms of currency pairs traded over the course of the year.
In our view, the most likely scenario of the Euro becoming the top currency by mid-2020 is a result of the European Central Bank policy meeting (ECB meeting) on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. On one hand, we think that there is an increased possibility that the Euro will remain above EURUSD, particularly if the ECB policy meeting produces positive signals from both the BoE and Bank of England. On the other hand, it is possible that both these announcements will be negative or at least ambiguous; so investors who have been investing in the Euro will be in for a very big shock.
In this article, we shall be looking at how and why we believe that the Euro will fall. In addition to this article, there will also be an analysis of the expected implications of a negative announcement from the Bank of England (BoE).
The EURUSD/CHF currency pair has consistently been seen to perform well during the last four weeks. However, we believe that there is a high likelihood that the EURUSD/CHF will fail to perform as well during the second half of the year. In particular, we are expecting EURUSD to break above the 0.4 support level in the process. This is because the recent rise in the EURUSD has occurred very quickly, making any short term technical support levels much too small to be a safe haven.
In a more bullish context, we are expecting that the EURUSD will continue to remain above the 0.4 support level in order to maintain some sort of support for the Euro against the US Dollar in the coming years. We believe that this support level is likely to be identified as EURUSD crosses below the 1.5 EUR/USD resistance level, which is likely to be around the $1.50 level in early-June. We also believe that the EURUSD may fail to hold above this level for several months. However, the weakness in the Euro against the Dollar is also likely to be reversed as long as the Euro continues to weaken against the USD, thereby strengthening the Euro against the GBP.
In the event that the Euro fails to perform as expected during the second half of this year, we expect a long-term weakening trend line to be formed between the EURUSD and the EURGBP in the next few months, followed by a quick recovery back to previous levels. This pattern is typically a result of both a temporary loss in EURUSD strength (a decline) and a reversal of the trend line (a reversal of the trend line). It is also possible that the EURUSD may continue to fall, but to a lesser extent, as the strength of EURUSD increases. When the EURUSD returns to previous levels, it may even start to weaken and return to the trend line levels.
At present, we see a number of strong selling pressure indicators, which we believe will cause the EURUSD to cross above the 1.5 EUR/USD resistance level in the second half of this year. One of the more prominent factors that we believe will play a major role in this process is the expected release of the BoE monetary policy statement. If the BoE does not provide any signs that they are planning on raising interest rates in June, we expect that the EURUSD will continue to fall in anticipation of this.
As we mentioned previously, we are expecting that there will be a sharp divergence between the FOMC announcement on Thursday and the BoE announcement on Wednesday afternoon. If the BoE confirms that they will proceed with their plan to keep the base rate unchanged, which we believe they will, we believe that the EURUSD will once again break out of this low.